Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
